2011

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Theme	<<Environment Social
Sub-theme	<<Housing Population
Indicator	Crime>> Age and gender
Analysis	<< 2010 2011

Source	Small Area Population Forecasts (Hampshire CC)
Date Released	7 March 2011
National Indicators	n/a
Hampshire LAA targets	n/a
Date range	April 2010 - April 2017
Published by Profile Online	23 March 2011
History of amendments	07 October 2011: Data analysis added
Has this analysis been subsequently revised	Yes

Data Time Series Comparisons Commentary Confidence Levels Notes

Commentary

Current estimates and short term forecasts of the borough population and age profile at ward and parish level can be found at Hampshire County Council`s Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF):
http://www3.hants.gov.uk/planning/factsandfigures/population-statistics/small-area-pop-stats.htm

The base year estimates are rolled forward from 2001 Census population figures, incorporating known births and deaths and known dwelling completions. Students are counted at their term time address. The borough level data is also broken down by the 2004 Urban and Rural Classification.

The unknown elements are the in and out flows of migrants. The model deals with these as three separate flows - in migrants to the new dwelling completions, and in and out migrants from the existing stock of dwellings. The net effect of these forecast flows is controlled by an assumption that, at borough level, average household size declined between 2001 and 2010 at the same average annual rate as in the previous decade.

At approximately 165,800, the estimated base year population for Basingstoke and Deane in 2010-based SAPF is about 270 higher than was forecast in 2009-based SAPF.

The population forecasts for the period 2010 to 2017 are based on the projected future dwellings supply, which includes all housing sites with planning permission, or those allocated in local plans, as at April 2010. The assumptions on phasing are agreed between borough and county councils, and assume optimum rates of development on each site. Users should be aware that, in the current economic climate, forecasting future dwelling supply has been particularly difficult. The figures are the best projections available as at April 1st 2010 on a site by site basis, taking account of the current market conditions. As a result, there is less certainty around these population and dwelling forecasts.

A subsequent update of SAPF data, covering the period 2011-2018, was published in March 2012, and is currently being analysed.

Confidence Levels

As indicated above, an important input to these forecasts is the projected future dwellings supply, which has been particularly difficult to predict in the current economic climate. The figures are the best projections available as at April 1st 2010 on a site by site basis, taking account of the current market conditions. As a result, there is less certainty around these population and dwelling forecasts at the present time.

For full methodology and assumptions behind these estimates, go to:
http://www3.hants.gov.uk/planning/factsandfigures/population-statistics/small-area-pop-stats/methodology-small-area-population.htm

In order to reflect the fact that SAPF data represent estimates and forecasts, it is recommended that local authority totals should be rounded to the nearest 100 when quoted, and that data relating to smaller geographical areas and individual age groups should also be rounded to the nearest 100, or to the nearest 10 for very small areas or age groups.

Data

2010-based SAPF shows that the population of the borough as a whole stood at approximately 165,800 in 2010, and that it is forecast to reach about 166,800 in 2011 and to grow to 171,200 in 2017.

The chart below shows how the male and female population of the borough is estimated to be distributed within 5-year age groups at 2011.

The chart shows that there are estimated to be about 5,000 females and slightly more males in each 5-year age group under the age of 35 (representing about 1,000 females and just over 1,000 males for each year of age). Numbers increase beyond age 35 to reach a peak in the age groups 40-49, when both males and females exceed 6,500 in each 5-year group.
Beyond the 45-49 age group, at which point females start to outnumber males, numbers decline to about 4,800 of each sex at age 55-59. After a small second peak aged 60-64, when males exceed 5,200 and females 5,000, both sexes see reductions in subsequent age groups, with numbers of males declining more quickly than females, to fewer than 1,500 males and about 2,100 females in the 80-84 age group. While the number of males continues to decline in the over-85 age group, the number of females increases to more than 2,300.

Time Series

Comparisons

The main limitation with SAPF data is that it is only available for the Hampshire County area and the two cities of Portsmouth and Southampton.

For comparisons with other authorities, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Mid Year Population Estimates are the best official source at local authority level. These are published annually approximately one year in arrears. They can be found at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/pop-estimate/population-estimates-for-uk--england-and-wales--scotland-and-northern-ireland/mid-2010-population-estimates/index.html

Below local authority level, ONS have produced "experimental statistics" that include ward level estimates which are compatible with the Mid Year Population Estimates. Further information can be found at:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/hub/release-calendar/index.html?newquery=*&title=Ward+Level+mid-year+population+estimates+for+England+and+Wales+%28experimental%29&pagetype=calendar-entry&lday=&lmonth=&lyear=&uday=&umonth=&uyear

These estimates are now available in the geographical format of '2010 wards', reflecting ward boundaries as they stood at December 2009, and therefore reflecting the new borough warding arrangements which came into force in May 2008.