2010

Quick finder : Snapshot :
Theme	<<Environment Social
Sub-theme	<<Housing Population
Indicator	<<Crime Ethnicity>> Economically active and working age population growth
Analysis	2010

Source	ONS Mid Year Population Estimates (MYE)
Date Released	30 June 2011
National Indicators	n/a
Hampshire LAA targets	n/a
Date range	1992 - 2010
Published by Profile Online	10 October 2011

Data Time Series Comparisons Commentary Confidence Levels Notes

Commentary

With the age at which women qualify for State Pension gradually increasing from 60 to 65 between April 2010 and April 2020, it has now become conventional to take the working age range as 16-64 for both males and females. Previous analysis of the working age population had taken the female working age population as 16-59, resulting in higher percentages in the latest data release.

Current estimates and short term forecasts of Basingstoke and Deane's working age population at borough, ward and parish level can be extracted from Hampshire County Council's Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF):
http://www3.hants.gov.uk/planning/factsandfigures/population-statistics/small-area-pop-stats.htm
From 2010-based SAPF, and using the 16-64 age range for both sexes, the borough's working age population at April 2010 is estimated as 108,500, and it is forecast to decrease by 600 to 107,900 by 2017 as the population ages, despite a forecast overall population increase of 5,400 over the same period.

In comparison, using a female working age range at April 2010 of 16-59 would have resulted in a total working age population for the borough of 103,400 up to State Pension age. Likewise, assuming a linear distribution within the female population aged 60-64 at April 2017 (at which point State pension age for women would be 63 years and 6 months), the total forecast working age population up to State Pension age would be approximately 106,600. This would represent an increase in the borough's working age population of 3,200 over the period 2010-2017, which would be entirely attributable to the change in age at which the female State Pension becomes payable.

However, Mid Year Population Estimates (MYE), published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), provide a more readily accessible source of data for the working age population at local authority level, from which comparisons can be made with other areas, as well as back in time. MYE's are published one year in arrears and are recorded in NOMIS official labour market statistics. Using the 16-64 age range for both sexes, the 2010 MYE for the borough indicates a working age population of 108,500, identical to the 2010-based SAPF base figure (albeit 3 months later in the year).

Closely related to the working age population is the economically active population. The economically active population includes all people aged 16 and over who are either in employment or unemployed. The economic activity rate expresses the economically active population as a percentage of the working age population. Data on economic activity rates in the borough can be found at: http://www.basingstoke.gov.uk/about/facts/profile/economic/employment+and+income/economic+activity+rate/2008-06.htm

Confidence Levels

Details of sources and methodology can be found at:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/pop-estimate/population-estimates-for-uk--england-and-wales--scotland-and-northern-ireland/mid-2010-population-estimates/index.html

It is ONS policy to publish population estimates rounded to at least the nearest hundred persons in order to avoid a greater degree of accuracy being attributed to them than would be appropriate.

Data

The working population for Basingstoke and Deane, extracted from the 2010 Mid Year Estimates, is set out below.
It can be seen that for both males and females, the working age population forms a higher proportion of the borough's total population than is the case either nationally or within the South East region as a whole.

Working age population (aged 16-64 for males and females) at 2010
	Basingstoke and Deane	Basingstoke and Deane	South East	Great Britain
	(numbers)	(%)	(%)	(%)
All people - working age	108,500	65.7	63.9	64.8
Males - working age	54,300	66.1	64.8	65.8
Females - working age	54,200	65.3	63.0	63.8

Source: ONS Mid Year Population Estimates 2010 - Crown Copyright
via NOMIS official labour market statistics

Notes: % is a proportion of total population

Time Series

On the basis of applying a 16-64 age range retrospectively for both sexes over the entire period 1992-2010, it can be seen from the table below that whilst the working age population living in the borough has continued to increase, from 97,500 in 1992 to 108,500 in 2010, as a percentage of the overall borough population, it has decreased over the same period from 66.9% to 65.7%.

As a percentage of overall population, the borough's working age population remains higher than both the regional and national averages, but the difference has reduced from more than 3 percentage points in both cases at 1992, to less than 2% compared with the South East average at 2010, and to less than 1% compared with the average for Great Britain as a whole.

Date	Basingstoke and Deane	Basingstoke and Deane (%)	South East (%)	Great Britain (%)
Working age population (aged 16-64 for males and females) at 2010
1992	97,500	66.9	63.7	63.8
1993	97,800	66.8	63.5	63.6
1994	98,200	66.6	63.4	63.5
1995	98,200	66.4	63.4	63.5
1996	98,600	66.4	63.4	63.6
1997	98,900	66.3	63.5	63.6
1998	98,700	66.2	63.5	63.7
1999	100,300	66.3	63.6	63.8
2000	100,900	66.3	63.7	64.0
2001	101,500	66.4	63.8	64.1
2002	102,000	66.3	63.8	64.2
2003	102,900	66.5	63.9	64.4
2004	103,300	66.4	64.0	64.6
2005	104,500	66.4	64.1	64.8
2006	105,400	66.5	64.3	65.0
2007	106,400	66.5	64.3	65.1
2008	107,100	66.3	64.3	65.1
2009	107,800	66.0	64.1	65.0
2010	108,500	65.7	63.9	64.8

Source: ONS Mid-year population estimates

Notes:

% is a proportion of total population

Comparisons

Comparison with other local authorities in Hampshire, Surrey and the former Berkshire area shows the wide range in size of the working age population in each, reflecting the variation in overall local authority size. The table also shows the wide variation in the working age population as a proportion of total population in each local authority area, with generally higher proportions in urban areas. At 65.7%, the working age population of Basingstoke and Deane forms a relatively high proportion of the borough's total population, placing it in the upper half of a range which extends from 71.0% in Southampton to 55.0% in Rother.

Working age population 2010
Local Authority	Numbers	%
Southampton	170,200	71.0
Reading	108,500	70.4
Portsmouth	145,000	70.0
Runnymede	58,100	67.6
Bracknell Forest	78,600	67.5
Rushmoor	62,100	67.5
Slough	88,300	67.4
Guildford	91,900	67.0
Wokingham	107,600	65.9
Basingstoke and Deane	108,500	65.7
Woking	60,500	64.7
Eastleigh	78,900	64.5
Reigate and Banstead	89,200	64.4
West Berkshire	98,800	64.2
Windsor and Maidenhead	93,800	64.2
Epsom and Ewell	47,500	63.9
Hart	58,300	63.9
Spelthorne	59,700	63.9
Gosport	50,800	63.6
Surrey Heath	53,700	63.6
Elmbridge	83,300	63.2
Winchester	71,600	62.6
Test Valley	70,900	62.5
Fareham	69,700	62.2
East Hampshire	69,500	61.7
Tandridge	51,000	61.4
Mole Valley	51,600	61.0
Havant	70,700	60.5
Waverley	72,500	60.3
New Forest	103,800	58.6
Rother	49,400	55.0

Source: ONS Mid Year Population Estimates (2010)
via NOMIS official labour market statistics - Crown Copyright

Notes: % is a proportion of total population
Working age includes males and females aged 16-64

Notes

With the age at which women qualify for State Pension gradually increasing from 60 to 65 between April 2010 and April 2020, the working age population is now taken as 16-64 for both males and females. Previous analysis of the working age population had taken the female working age population as 16-59, resulting in higher percentages in the latest data release.