Route map to net zero

In December 2024, we began to lead a review of the Climate Change and Air Quality Strategy, adopted in 2021. As we neared our target to become a carbon-neutral organisation in December 2024, the aim was to build on what had been achieved so far and better focus efforts on helping to reduce the borough’s emissions.

The Carbon Trust was commissioned to support us with this, undertaking technical work with our partners, businesses and communities to explore different pathways for how the borough could reach net zero.

This webpage summarises the results from this project.

You can request the more detailed results of this work by getting in touch with our Climate Change team.

Net zero scenarios

In 2022, our borough’s emissions were equivalent to 1,081 kilo tonnes of carbon. Excluding the carbon emitted and captured by land use, land use change and forestry, this was made up of:

41% from transport
34% from domestic buildings
10% from non-domestic buildings
8% from agriculture
7% from industry
0.5% from waste

With an understanding of our borough’s carbon footprint, the Carbon Trust created three different future net zero scenarios and a ‘business as usual’ scenario.

Business as usual: Represents the impacts of current and planned policies, as well as historical trends.
Net zero 2030: Combination of high ambition sector scenarios optimised for a net zero target year of 2030; in line with the council's current net zero target for the borough.
Net zero 2040: Combination of more conservative sector scenarios optimised for a net zero target year of 2040. This scenario is more ambitious than the UK’s national net zero 2050 commitment.
Net zero 2045: Combination of more conservative sector scenarios that are optimised for a net zero target year of 2045. This scenario is slightly more ambitious than the UK net zero 2050 commitment.

The aim was to give the council and stakeholders alternative options for a net zero target year by considering the scale of change required, investment cost and residual emissions forecasted.

Insights from the net zero scenarios

Change in greenhouse gas emissions

The net zero scenarios suggest that emissions could decrease by up to 34% by 2030 (relative to 2022), leaving a significant gap to the current 2030 target.
Emissions decrease the quickest in the net zero 2030 scenario, owing to assumed accelerated deployment rates of low-carbon technologies, particularly heat pumps and electric vehicles.
Setting a net zero by 2040 or 2045 target could provide opportunity to reduce emissions further by up to 82%, minimising residual emissions.

Indicative investment

The total cumulative investment required could be around £1 billion between now and 2030, or £125 million per year.
In the 2040 and 2045 net zero scenarios, the total cumulative investment could be higher, but distributed over a longer timeframe, up to £75 million per year. In the BAU scenario, cumulative investment is lower but still non-zero, owing to changes in government policies and population growth.
The scale of investment indicated emphasises that the net zero transition cannot be the sole responsibility of one organisation and needs to be financed through a multitude of routes, organisations and sectors.

Change in electricity demand

Electricity demand is expected to increase significantly as the UK moves away from fossil fuels, bringing an increased uptake of electric technologies, particularly for heating and transport. In all three net zero scenarios electricity demand almost doubles by 2030 (from a base year of 2022).
The BAU scenario also sees a significant increase in electricity demand, with demand doubling by 2040.
The net zero 2030 scenario has the highest near-term (5-year) rate of electrification, though also with more extensive energy efficiency measures being deployed.

Emission reduction (%, relative to 2022)	By 2030	By 2040	By 2045
Business as usual	-8%	-26%	-45%
Net zero 2030	-34%	-81%	-88%
Net zero 2040	-23%	-70%	-84%
Net zero 2045	-18%	-61%	-82%

Cumulative investment (£ millions, relative to 2022)	By 2030	By 2040	By 2045
Business as usual	45	227	502
Net zero 2030	1,001	2,165	2,379
Net zero 2040	148	1,349	1,522
Net zero 2045	334	989	1,522

Change in electricity demand (relative to 2022)	By 2030	By 2040	By 2045
Business as usual	1.4 times greater	1.9 times greater	2.2 times greater
Net zero 2030	1.9 times greater	3.9 times greater	3.9 times greater
Net zero 2040	1.95 times greater	3.6 times greater	3.9 times greater
Net zero 2045	1.9 times greater	3.4 times greater	3.9 times greater

Recommended net zero 2045 route map

The objective of our net zero route map is to present a summary of what is required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as far as possible by a chosen target date, based on ambitious but realistic modelling. All scenarios modelled showed a level of residual emissions in the target year, reflecting a need for stakeholders to discuss the most appropriate mechanism to manage emissions that are hard to eliminate.

An assessment of the impacts of each net zero scenario modelled were considered to identify the most effective pathway to net zero for the borough, such as:

level of emissions reduction
indicative cost
impact on energy demand
the current policy landscape
stakeholder feedback, shared in attendance at three workshops

Using this evidence the net zero 2045 route map has been proposed for the borough, to inform the next update of its Climate Change and Air Quality Strategy.

The milestones set out in the route map can serve as ‘vision-setting’ reference points, and a basis for monitoring progress over time. Measures that are presented in the route map are additional to the measures that have already been taken up to the baseline year (2022). Such as numbers of heat pumps refer to cumulative additional heat pumps installed in each year.

By 2025

6,500 vehicle chargers installed 
7% private cars are electric 
3 megawatts of rooftop photovoltaic solar panels 
1,500 new heat pumps installed in buildings 
28% waste recycling rate 
3% of industrial heat demand electrified 
1% decrease in livestock emissions

By 2030

23,300 vehicle chargers installed 
27% private cars are electric 
5% buses are electric; 5% run on hydrogen 
16 megawatts of rooftop photovoltaic solar panels 
3,000 new heat pumps installed in buildings 
56% waste recycling rate 
2% homes with new retrofit measures 
13% of industrial heat demand electrified 
7% decrease in livestock emissions

By 2035

48,000 vehicle chargers installed 
51% private cars are electric 
16% buses are electric; 25% run on hydrogen; 8% run on biofuels 
30 megawatts of rooftop photovoltaic solar panels 
6% of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) run on hydrogen 
11,000 new heat pumps installed in buildings 
2 megawatt solar canopy installed 
65% waste recycling rate 
12% homes with new retrofit measures 
26% of industrial heat demand electrified 
13% decrease in livestock emissions

By 2040

72,800 vehicle chargers installed 
72% private cars are electric 
32% buses are electric; 37% run on hydrogen; 10% run on biofuels 
43 megawatts of rooftop photovoltaic solar panels
11% of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) run on hydrogen 
39,000 new heat pumps installed in buildings 
4 megawatt solar canopy installed 
66% waste recycling rate 
50% homes with new retrofit measures 
36% of industrial heat demand electrified 
16% decrease in livestock emissions

By 2045

87,800 vehicle chargers installed 
84% private cars are electric 
46% buses are electric; 44% run on hydrogen; 10% run on biofuels 
55 megawatts of rooftop photovoltaic solar panels 
29% of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) run on hydrogen 
67,000 new heat pumps installed in buildings 
6 megawatt solar canopy installed 
67% waste recycling rate 
87% homes with new retrofit measures 
42% of industrial heat demand electrified 
19% decrease in livestock emissions

Other route maps

Alongside the route map for a net zero carbon borough by 2045, the Carbon Trust modelled two further scenarios that were not taken forward to update the borough’s Climate Change and Air Quality Strategy.

These two scenarios based on the Carbon Trust’s technical work, outline the indicative actions that could be taken to help achieve a net zero borough in 2030 and 2040.

Net zero by 2030

By 2025